EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Allies

56.8%

2.5% share · 6 matches

1st

Wind Shadowstrike

58.4%

7.5% share · 21 matches

5.0% share · 13 matches

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#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Wind Shadowstrike	3	7.5%	21	66.7%	60.4%	58.4%	56.3%	1515	↑ top
2	Water Allies	1	2.5%	6	66.7%	60.8%	56.8%	55.6%	1354	—
3	Fire Slimes	2	5.0%	13	69.2%	54.1%	56.0%	52.4%	1466	↑ top
4	Fire Astra Cleric	1	2.5%	7	57.1%	55.2%	55.0%	54.1%	1361	↑ top
5	Fire Lorraine	1	2.5%	6	50.0%	56.3%	54.5%	55.8%	1300	—
6	Fire Crux Merlin	4	10.0%	27	57.4%	51.0%	54.5%	51.0%	1373	↑ top
7	Fire Crux Mage	2	5.0%	13	57.7%	57.7%	54.0%	54.3%	1278	—
8	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.5%	6	50.0%	47.3%	53.7%	52.1%	1278	—
9	Wind Umbra Tristan	1	2.5%	6	41.7%	48.6%	53.5%	54.7%	1312	—
10	Water Ravishing Mill	2	5.0%	10	45.0%	48.3%	51.0%	51.9%	1190	↓ low
11	Fire Crux Hybrid	4	10.0%	20	47.5%	51.5%	50.3%	51.8%	1236	↓ low
12	Wind Vanitas	1	2.5%	6	58.3%	58.8%	50.0%	52.2%	1264	—
13	Wind Allies	4	10.0%	24	43.8%	44.8%	45.4%	45.7%	1292	—
14	Water Umbra Diana	2	5.0%	12	33.3%	38.5%	45.2%	45.2%	1385	↑ top
15	Slimes	10	25.0%	47	39.4%	42.7%	44.8%	46.4%	1268	—
16	Fire Arcane	1	2.5%	6	33.3%	42.2%	42.4%	43.6%	1073	↓ low