Fire Crux MageTier 2
at 貓腳印高雄店 台灣南部地區 R 賽
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.4% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.3 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Erupting Rhapsody | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |