Wind AlliesTier 2
at 貓腳印高雄店 台灣南部地區 R 賽
decks
8
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
50
20-26-4
overall winrate
44.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.3%
avg ELO -2.3 per match
expected value
49.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1253
· median 1254
· range 1130–1536
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
835
Q1 1177
Q3 1387
1694
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.2% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 63.9% | +7.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 18.6% | -16.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.0% | -15.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -8.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -1.9 |
| Wind Beast | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Charged Mannequin, Andronika, Eternal Herald, Favorable Winds. Losers more often ran: Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa, Aesan Protector, Veiling Breeze.
Charged Mannequin
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Andronika, Eternal Herald
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Favorable Winds
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Second Wind
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 3.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Veiling Breeze
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Hurricane Sweep
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tempest Downfall
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reclaim | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Mark of Fervor | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |