Water NeosTier 3
at 貓腳印高雄店 台灣南部地區 R 賽
decks
1
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.2%
avg ELO -8.9 per match
expected value
36.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1110
· median 1110
· range 1110–1110
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
835
Q1 1177
Q3 1387
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Allies | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
