Water AlliesTier 2
at 貓腳印高雄店 台灣南部地區 R 賽
decks
3
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
9-6-4
overall winrate
57.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
55.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1348
· median 1352
· range 1327–1366
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
835
Q1 1177
Q3 1387
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 26.2% | 6 | 3-0-3 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 64.3% | +7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
