EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hong Kong Regional 2024 .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 71.4% | 65.2% | 61.6% | 61.4% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 62.8% | 60.9% | 57.9% | 1507 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 2.0% | 14 | 75.0% | 60.3% | 60.6% | 55.5% | 1283 | — |
| 4 | Wind Crux Hybrid | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 49.6% | 58.6% | 52.4% | 1574 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Astra Arisanna | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 64.3% | 61.2% | 57.2% | 59.3% | 1079 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 60.7% | 55.8% | 53.1% | 1688 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Neos | 2 | 2.0% | 13 | 57.7% | 57.9% | 55.6% | 56.8% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 11 | 11.0% | 59 | 57.6% | 53.8% | 55.4% | 53.3% | 1289 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 3.0% | 12 | 41.7% | 49.4% | 53.7% | 55.2% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Water Ravishing Mill | 5 | 5.0% | 29 | 55.2% | 56.5% | 53.6% | 54.3% | 1280 | — |
| 11 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 78.6% | 71.9% | 52.9% | 55.1% | 1338 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Wind Allies | 6 | 6.0% | 31 | 53.2% | 55.0% | 50.7% | 50.4% | 1252 | — |
| 13 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 53.6% | 50.1% | 49.4% | 1308 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Slimes | 35 | 35.0% | 110 | 47.7% | 47.2% | 49.2% | 48.6% | 1230 | — |
| 15 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 2.0% | 7 | 35.7% | 40.7% | 48.0% | 47.9% | 1105 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 14 | 14.0% | 54 | 38.9% | 43.4% | 46.4% | 48.4% | 1196 | — |
| 17 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 1.0% | 6 | 16.7% | 31.7% | 46.0% | 46.7% | 1141 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Erupting | 5 | 5.0% | 15 | 33.3% | 38.4% | 45.2% | 46.7% | 1206 | — |
| 19 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 2.0% | 7 | 28.6% | 48.0% | 42.4% | 49.6% | 1108 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.1% | 35.6% | 36.9% | 1133 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Arcane | 4 | 4.0% | 8 | 12.5% | 27.4% | 34.7% | 35.7% | 1280 | — |
| 22 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.0% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.0% | 34.4% | 38.6% | 1156 | ↓ low |