EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 台灣 中部地區 Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Beast | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 85.7% | 65.6% | 59.4% | 56.2% | 1300 | — |
| 2 | Fire Lorraine | 4 | 5.3% | 22 | 70.5% | 59.1% | 58.4% | 55.2% | 1396 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 71.4% | 58.4% | 58.0% | 56.6% | 1312 | — |
| 4 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 42.4% | 56.2% | 53.1% | 1694 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Ravishing Mill | 6 | 7.9% | 34 | 60.3% | 54.6% | 56.1% | 54.0% | 1386 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Aggro | 5 | 6.6% | 34 | 67.6% | 71.2% | 56.0% | 59.0% | 1281 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 2.6% | 14 | 75.0% | 70.4% | 55.6% | 56.5% | 1444 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 57.1% | 59.8% | 55.0% | 55.0% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 2 | 2.6% | 11 | 54.5% | 52.5% | 54.1% | 53.7% | 1324 | — |
| 10 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.3% | 6 | 50.0% | 56.3% | 53.8% | 56.1% | 1361 | — |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 4 | 5.3% | 27 | 53.7% | 50.0% | 52.4% | 50.3% | 1317 | — |
| 12 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.7% | 51.1% | 51.5% | 1331 | — |
| 13 | Water Neos | 2 | 2.6% | 14 | 46.4% | 48.8% | 50.6% | 51.0% | 1263 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Slimes | 12 | 15.8% | 66 | 47.7% | 47.1% | 50.1% | 49.9% | 1304 | — |
| 15 | Water Allies | 3 | 3.9% | 21 | 47.6% | 54.3% | 48.4% | 51.9% | 1315 | — |
| 16 | Wind Shadowstrike | 6 | 7.9% | 31 | 35.5% | 36.5% | 47.1% | 46.6% | 1282 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 9 | 11.8% | 44 | 43.2% | 41.5% | 46.1% | 45.7% | 1311 | — |
| 18 | Water Astra Cleric | 5 | 6.6% | 27 | 40.7% | 40.3% | 45.7% | 45.7% | 1356 | — |
| 19 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 3 | 3.9% | 15 | 33.3% | 39.3% | 44.9% | 46.2% | 1240 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 52.3% | 44.3% | 48.9% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 3.9% | 11 | 18.2% | 32.7% | 42.0% | 43.6% | 1344 | — |
| 22 | Fire Crux Mage | 3 | 3.9% | 17 | 26.5% | 38.7% | 41.1% | 44.2% | 1359 | — |
| 23 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.0% | 40.7% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1097 | ↓ low |