← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Fire AggroTier 2
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
decks
13
(10.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74
35-36-3
overall winrate
49.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.3%
avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1220
· median 1222
· range 1103–1496
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1172
Q3 1416
1685
8% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
38% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 13 | 7-5-1 | 57.7% | 55.9% | 62.4% | +5.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 15 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 57.6% | +3.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 38.5% | -6.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.5% | -9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 12 | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 68.7% | +8.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.2% | -3.1 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.6% | -9.2 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.8% | +11.4 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sword of Adversity, Hone by Fire, Sword of Seeking. Losers more often ran: Captivating Cutthroat, Zander, Deft Executor, Planted Explosive.
Sword of Adversity
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Hone by Fire
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Lorraine, Blademaster
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Fiery Momentum
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Captivating Cutthroat
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Zander, Deft Executor
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Planted Explosive
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Sable Remnant
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Varuckan Soulknife
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 73 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword of Adversity | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strapping Conscript | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Excoriate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manic Zealot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cell Handler | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embertail Squirrel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impassioned Tutor | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |