← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Water OverlordTier 3
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
decks
1
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
2-5-0
overall winrate
28.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.8%
avg ELO -4.6 per match
expected value
39.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1211
· median 1211
· range 1211–1211
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1172
Q3 1416
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 35.2% | -11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
