← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Wind AlliesTier 2
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
decks
18
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
84
29-47-8
overall winrate
39.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
42.9%
avg ELO -2.4 per match
expected value
43.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1223
· median 1188
· range 989–1668
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1172
Q3 1416
1685
6% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 40.9% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 15 | 7-7-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 46.9% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.2% | -2.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 10 | 4-5-1 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 46.7% | -1.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 28.9% | -12.2 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.6% | -3.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.4% | +10.0 |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.1% | -5.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
Decklists · 18 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reclaim, Dream Fairy, Rose, Eternal Paragon. Losers more often ran: Deflecting Edge, Swift Recruit, Banner Knight.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Rose, Eternal Paragon
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Shimmercloak Assassin
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Stifling Trap
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Swift Recruit
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Banner Knight
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Weaponsmith
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Drawn Blade
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Bauble of Abundance
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 94 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 74 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 6 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.83 | 0 | 5 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.83 | 5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Swift Recruit | -0.67 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Weaponsmith | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veteran Soldier | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mark of Fervor | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Second Wind | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blessed Clergy | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ceremonial Stormblade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Cutter | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dominating Strike | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr's Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| City Protector | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Novice Mechanist | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Into the Fray | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intrepid Spearman | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpening Stone | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperious Highlander | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crusader of Aesa | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |