← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 13 | 2-8-3 | 26.9% | 32.4% | 35.2% | -6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.8% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 61.5% | +6.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.4% | -1.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 57.4% | +4.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.2% | +4.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.7 |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.3% | -5.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.5 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Under Fire, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Reprogram.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Savage Slash | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |