← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Fire EruptingTier 2
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
decks
3
(2.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
10-11-1
overall winrate
47.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1264
· median 1289
· range 1103–1399
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1172
Q3 1416
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.0% | -14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.4% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 46.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.3% | +7.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.5% | +15.8 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
