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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 46.6% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 31.3% | -8.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.5% | +8.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 41.4% | -4.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.7% | -7.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Accepted Contract | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |