← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 18 | 7-9-2 | 44.4% | 45.5% | 36.9% | -5.1 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 53.1% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 42.4% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.6% | +1.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 11 | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 53.5% | +1.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +2.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.4 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 53.4% | +2.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.0% | -4.5 |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.6% | -11.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 34 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spontaneous Combustion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |