← The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
Fire LorraineTier 2
at The Philippine Grand Archive MNL Regionals by Heralds' Peak - Wolves Den
decks
2
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
9-4-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1465
· median 1465
· range 1449–1482
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1172
Q3 1416
1685
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.5% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.0% | -9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 14.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Beast | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.1% | -0.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tristan | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
