EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Haven Games Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Aggro

52.7%

6.1% share · 18 matches

20.4% share · 44 matches

2.0% share · 6 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Slimes	10	20.4%	44	75.0%	66.4%	61.9%	59.2%	1386	↑ top
2	Fire Aggro	3	6.1%	18	61.1%	58.4%	52.7%	53.1%	1370	↑ top
3	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.0%	6	66.7%	64.2%	52.3%	55.4%	1246	—
4	Wind Tristan	1	2.0%	6	41.7%	42.2%	51.7%	50.5%	1259	—
5	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.0%	6	58.3%	58.7%	51.4%	52.4%	1352	↑ top
6	Water Ravishing Mill	2	4.1%	12	58.3%	56.7%	51.3%	52.2%	1281	—
7	Water Allies	1	2.0%	6	50.0%	45.7%	50.6%	48.2%	1357	↑ top
8	Water Neos	2	4.1%	12	66.7%	61.5%	49.8%	51.0%	1318	—
9	Fire Erupting	3	6.1%	18	55.6%	58.2%	49.6%	51.8%	1274	—
10	Water Diana	1	2.0%	5	20.0%	35.0%	48.2%	48.5%	1159	↓ low
11	Water Crux Mage	1	2.0%	6	50.0%	57.8%	48.2%	52.9%	1256	—
12	Wind Shadowstrike	7	14.3%	37	50.0%	46.9%	48.2%	47.4%	1272	—
13	Wind Lorraine	2	4.1%	12	33.3%	31.9%	45.5%	42.4%	1318	—
14	Wind Luxem Assassin	2	4.1%	9	33.3%	47.6%	42.8%	47.8%	1129	↓ low
15	Wind Allies	2	4.1%	12	33.3%	44.1%	42.5%	45.0%	1199	↓ low
16	Water Vanitas	1	2.0%	5	20.0%	41.7%	42.2%	45.4%	1170	↓ low
17	Water Crux Lorraine	1	2.0%	6	50.0%	56.2%	42.0%	46.6%	1270	—
18	Fire Umbra Ranger	1	2.0%	2	0.0%	34.0%	40.0%	41.6%	1261	—
19	Fire Arcane	3	6.1%	13	23.1%	31.9%	39.8%	41.1%	1209	↓ low
20	Fire Crux Hybrid	4	8.2%	19	23.7%	26.8%	39.1%	39.6%	1327	—