Fire ArcaneTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2024
decks
2
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-6-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
45.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1132
· median 1132
· range 1070–1193
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1417
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.6% | +18.8 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
