Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at NorCal Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 20 | 6-11-3 | 37.5% | 39.6% | 40.2% | -3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 54.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 51.3% | +0.7 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +1.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 56.6% | +3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 3 | 0-0-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.6% | +6.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.8% | +5.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.4 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
The 12 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Tristan, Shadowreaver, Ensnaring Fumes. Losers more often ran: Nullifying Lantern, Mastermind Scheme, Resolute Stand.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Betraying Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Baby Gray Slime | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Baby Green Slime | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Accepted Contract | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Debilitating Grasp | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disorienting Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |