Water Crux MageTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2024
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-2-2
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.0%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
48.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1484
· median 1484
· range 1484–1484
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1417
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.6 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
