Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at NorCal Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 12 | 4-8-0 | 33.3% | 37.5% | 41.8% | -3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.8% | -2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +4.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 7 | 4-1-2 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 65.0% | +7.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.0% | +6.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.6 |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.0% | +9.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.6% | +6.4 |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.6% | -8.1 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloak of Stillwater | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Icebound Slam | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |