← NorCal Regionals 2024

SlimesTier 1

at NorCal Regionals 2024

decks
23 (23.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
117 61-44-12
overall winrate
57.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.1% avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
54.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1331 · median 1351 · range 1070–1678 (23 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070 Q1 1193 Q3 1417 1736
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Shadowstrike 12.0% 20 11-6-3 62.5% 60.4% 59.8% +3.8
Water Ravishing Mill 9.0% 12 8-4-0 66.7% 62.5% 58.2% +3.5
Fire Crux Mage 8.0% 14 5-8-1 39.3% 41.7% 43.6% -2.6
Wind Allies 8.0% 9 7-1-1 83.3% 73.1% 66.0% +7.4
Wind Luxem Assassin 7.0% 11 1-8-2 18.2% 26.7% 31.2% -8.2
Fire Aggro 3.0% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 40.5% -6.1
Fire Crux Hybrid 3.0% 6 6-0-0 100.0% 80.0% 74.1% +12.9
Fire Slimes 3.0% 4 1-1-2 50.0% 50.0% 45.9% -2.6
Wind Beast 3.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 60.3% +7.7
Fire Arcane 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.4% +13.5
Fire Erupting 2.0% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 40.1% -6.3
Water Allies 2.0% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 52.4% +1.6
Fire Astra Cleric 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.4% +10.2
Fire Crux Merlin 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.3% +8.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.0% 4 4-0-0 100.0% 75.0% 72.9% +14.7
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.0% 0
Water Astra Arisanna 1.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 60.4% +7.7
Water Crux Lorraine 1.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 44.5% -4.1
Water Crux Mage 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.6
Wind Astra Arisanna 1.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +1.7
Wind Astra Cleric 1.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.2% +0.2
Wind Crux Mage 1.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.8% -3.0
Wind Diana 1.0% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 40.4% -7.1
Wind Neos 1.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.9% +12.7
Wind Slice & Dice 1.0% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 1.0% 0
Wind Vanitas 1.0% 3 0-1-2 33.3% 42.9% 47.5% -1.8
Decklists · 23 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 14 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Verdant Slime, Ordinary Bear, Blissful Calling. Losers more often ran: Hymn of Gaia's Grace, Twilight Slime, Beastbond Ears.

Played more by winners
Verdant Slime
Winning decks ran 1.4 copies on average, losing decks 0.9.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 6.
Ordinary Bear
Winning decks ran 2.8 copies on average, losing decks 2.3.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 7.
Blissful Calling
Winning decks ran 4.0 copies on average, losing decks 3.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 11.
Slimeshield
Winning decks ran 2.9 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 5, the loser ran more in 2, both ran the same in 7.
Lustrous Slime
Winning decks ran 2.9 copies on average, losing decks 2.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 9.
Gaia's Songbird
Winning decks ran 3.6 copies on average, losing decks 3.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 3, both ran the same in 5.
Played more by losers
Hymn of Gaia's Grace
Losing decks ran 2.1 copies on average, winning decks 1.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 7.
Twilight Slime
Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.6.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 4.
Beastbond Ears
Losing decks ran 0.7 copies on average, winning decks 0.5.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 7, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 3.
Slime's Blessing
Losing decks ran 0.6 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 9.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.2 copies on average, winning decks 0.0.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 11.
Reprogram
Losing decks ran 2.4 copies on average, winning decks 2.1.
Of 14 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 10.
Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 9 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Hymn of Gaia's Grace -0.50 0 7 7
Twilight Slime -0.43 2 8 2
Verdant Slime +0.29 6 2 4
Ordinary Bear +0.21 5 2 7
Blissful Calling +0.21 3 0 11
Slimeshield +0.21 5 2 7
Lustrous Slime +0.21 4 1 9
Gaia's Songbird +0.21 6 3 5
Slime Eruption +0.21 5 2 7
Tariff Ring +0.21 6 3 1
Escape the Wreckage +0.21 6 3 5
Beastbond Ears -0.21 4 7 3
Slime's Blessing -0.21 1 4 1
Turbo Charge -0.21 0 3 0
Ethereal Slime +0.14 2 0 12
Limitless Slime +0.14 2 0 12
Reprogram -0.14 1 3 10
Verdant Scepter +0.14 2 0 12
Vampiric Slime -0.14 1 3 0
Fast Cure -0.14 0 2 0
Engineered Slime -0.14 0 2 0
Green Slime -0.14 0 2 0
Scavenging Raccoon -0.14 0 2 0
Resolute Stand -0.07 4 5 5
Nullifying Lantern -0.07 2 3 9
Tera Sight -0.07 3 4 2
Bestial Frenzy -0.07 3 4 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.07 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/9462/archetypes/Slimes