Fire Crux MageTier 1
at NorCal Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 14 | 8-5-1 | 60.7% | 58.3% | 56.4% | +2.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 51.3% | +0.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -11.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.6% | +1.9 |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.4% | -18.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Crux Sight, Flame Sweep, Potion Infusion: Seal. Losers more often ran: Turbo Charge, Tariff Ring, Focused Flames.
Show all 45 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Excoriate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |