Fire EruptingTier 2
at NorCal Regionals 2024
decks
2
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-4-1
overall winrate
55.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1218
· range 1156–1280
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1193
Q3 1417
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.9% | +6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | -5.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
