Wind Luxem AssassinTier 1
at NorCal Regionals 2024
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 23.0% | 11 | 8-1-2 | 81.8% | 73.3% | 68.8% | +8.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.0% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 43.4% | -3.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 9.0% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.0% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Wind Allies | 8.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 48.9% | -0.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.1 |
| Wind Beast | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Wind Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Turbo Charge, Veiling Breeze, Swift Recruit. Losers more often ran: Ensnaring Fumes.
Show all 44 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spirit of Wind | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disorienting Winds | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Gleaming Cut | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sirocco Operative | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windwalker Boots | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uncover the Plot | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Uther, Illustrious King | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cunning Broker | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Wind | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thousand Refractions | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 |