← Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
decks
4
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-8-0
overall winrate
27.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
38.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1195
· median 1185
· range 1097–1311
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1175
Q3 1399
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.4 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
