← Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.1% | -12.3 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conduit of Seasons | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Taiji of Crystal Strategems | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cone of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coronal of Rejuvenation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tsunami of Nanyue | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Yudi, Gossamer Jade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dong Zhou, False Liege | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Covenant of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Tera | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperial Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sempiternal Sage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |