← Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
decks
13
(14.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
76
37-28-11
overall winrate
55.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
53.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1427
· median 1420
· range 1145–1685
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1175
Q3 1399
1685
54% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.8% | 11 | 6-3-2 | 63.6% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +1.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 12 | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 47.5% | -1.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.5% | 9 | 3-3-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.6% | +3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 34.4% | -7.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 40.7% | -4.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 34.7% | -11.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.0% | +2.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.3% | -2.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frozen Dismissal, Blanche, Sheltering Saint, Revitalizing Cleanse. Losers more often ran: Awakened Deacon, Frostbind, Water Resonance Bauble.
Frozen Dismissal
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Fractal of Intrusion
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Awakened Deacon
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Frostbind
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Freezing Steel
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Mystic Purifier
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Primordial Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 58 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Awakened Deacon | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Empowering Prayer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Allen, Beast Beckoner | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Vanitas, Obliviate Schemer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Convergent Ruin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vanitas, Dominus Rex | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |