← Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
Water AlliesTier 1
at Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
decks
4
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
12-10-2
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.8%
avg ELO +2.2 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1286
· median 1300
· range 1159–1384
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1175
Q3 1399
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.6% | +5.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +5.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.2 |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
