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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 12 | 5-4-3 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 52.5% | +1.1 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 5 | 2-0-3 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 53.3% | +1.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +8.1 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.8 |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 66.6% | +12.4 |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -3.9 |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.7% | +3.6 |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |