← Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional
decks
2
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
9-4-1
overall winrate
67.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
57.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1383
· median 1383
· range 1282–1484
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058
Q1 1175
Q3 1399
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Penguin Mill | 14.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +2.8 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 58.3% | +6.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Beast | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
