← Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional

Water Tera KongmingTier 2

at Mortal Ambition - Indonesia Regional

decks
5 (5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13 0-11-2
overall winrate
7.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
28.2% avg ELO -9.1 per match
expected value
41.2% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.7% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1145 · median 1146 · range 1111–1179 (5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1058 Q1 1175 Q3 1399 1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 60% in the bottom. This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Penguin Mill 14.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.7% -14.9
Slimes 11.8% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 41.0% -8.6
Water Ravishing Mill 7.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 49.3% -1.1
Wind Astra Cleric 7.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.8% -5.1
Wind Allies 6.5% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 47.7% -3.7
Wind Shadowstrike 5.4% 0
Fire Exia 4.3% 0
Water Allies 4.3% 0
Fire Aggro 3.2% 0
Fire Crux Mage 3.2% 0
Fire Slimes 3.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Water Tera Mage 3.2% 0
Fire Arcane 2.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 37.8% -11.7
Water Crux Mage 2.2% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 46.3% -5.8
Water Luxem Assassin 2.2% 0
Fire Arisanna 1.1% 0
Fire Kongming 1.1% 0
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.5% -12.0
Fire Umbra Ranger 1.1% 0
Water Arisanna 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.3
Water Astra Cleric 1.1% 0
Water Kongming 1.1% 0
Water Wind Vanitas 1.1% 0
Wind Beast 1.1% 0
Wind Kongming 1.1% 0
Wind Neos 1.1% 0
Wind Razorgale 1.1% 0
Wind Silvie 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.1% -12.6
Decklists · 5 from this event

The 5 public Water Tera Kongming decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 38 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Song of Frost +1.00 1 0 0
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Frostbind +1.00 1 0 0
Entrancing Filigree +1.00 1 0 0
Cone of Frost +1.00 1 0 0
Tithe Proclamation +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Tsunami of Nanyue -1.00 0 1 0
Spirited Neophyte -1.00 0 1 0
Hydroguard Retainer +1.00 1 0 0
Grand Crusader's Ring +1.00 1 0 0
Yudi, Gossamer Jade +1.00 1 0 0
Idle Thoughts -1.00 0 1 0
Bubble Mage +1.00 1 0 0
Lost in Thought +1.00 1 0 0
Ebbing Tide +1.00 1 0 0
Dong Zhou, False Liege +1.00 1 0 0
Glacial Evocation -1.00 0 1 0
Strategem of Myriad Ice +1.00 1 0 0
Fracturize +1.00 1 0 0
Life Essence Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure +1.00 1 0 0
Frostsworn Paladin +1.00 1 0 0
Nascent Blast -1.00 0 1 0
Shard of Empowerment -1.00 0 1 0
Wisdom's Reprise -1.00 0 1 0
Tera Sight -1.00 0 1 0
Ardent Cloudstriker -1.00 0 1 0
Formidable Youxia -1.00 0 1 0
Harmonious Mantra -1.00 0 1 0
Leeching Bolt -1.00 0 1 0
Bauble of Abundance -1.00 0 1 0
Chilling Touch -1.00 0 1 0
Refracting Missile +1.00 1 0 0
Tidal Lock +1.00 1 0 0
Rising Tides +1.00 1 0 0
Surveillance Stone -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/12996/archetypes/Water Tera Kongming