← The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
Fire ArcaneTier 3
at The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
decks
3
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
11-14-0
overall winrate
44.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.2%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
43.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1298
· median 1262
· range 1221–1410
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1169
Q3 1384
1685
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 48.8% | -0.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.6% | -9.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.2% | +9.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.2% | -14.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
