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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 14 | 9-3-2 | 71.4% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +6.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 13 | 6-5-2 | 53.8% | 52.9% | 57.7% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 12 | 7-2-3 | 70.8% | 65.6% | 63.7% | +5.8 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 54.3% | +2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 39.7% | -4.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.4% | +10.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 9 | 3-4-2 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 47.1% | -1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.9% | +7.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 45.4% | -2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.4 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Torrential Blast, Water Barrier. Losers more often ran: Tidal Lock.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torrential Blast | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stream of Consciousness | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 |