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Wind RazorgaleTier 2

at The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024

decks
23 (13.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
168 70-78-20
overall winrate
47.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.2% avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
46.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1332 · median 1383 · range 1041–1685 (23 pilots with an ELO rating)
941 Q1 1169 Q3 1384 1685
48% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 21.3% 37 16-18-3 47.3% 47.6% 45.9% -1.4
Wind Allies 9.2% 20 8-9-3 47.5% 47.9% 47.4% -1.0
Water Allies 6.9% 13 6-7-0 46.2% 47.1% 49.5% -0.2
Water Ravishing Mill 6.3% 9 2-6-1 27.8% 34.6% 39.7% -4.8
Water Penguin Mill 5.7% 13 5-6-2 46.2% 47.1% 42.3% -3.2
Wind Shadowstrike 4.6% 13 5-7-1 42.3% 44.1% 40.9% -3.8
Fire Luxem Assassin 4.0% 10 4-3-3 55.0% 53.6% 50.7% +0.3
Fire Aggro 3.4% 4 0-4-0 0.0% 25.0% 28.6% -13.7
Fire Crux Mage 3.4% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 52.0% +1.2
Fire Slimes 3.4% 14 5-7-2 42.9% 44.4% 42.5% -3.1
Fire Exia 2.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.0% +1.0
Wind Astra Cleric 2.3% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 43.5% -6.3
Fire Arcane 1.7% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 59.4% +9.0
Fire Crux Hybrid 1.1% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.5% +1.8
Water Tera Mage 1.1% 0
Fire Crux Merlin 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.5% +15.2
Fire Dawn of Ashes 0.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 59.3% +9.0
Fire Exia Jin 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.5% +13.6
Fire Tera Kongming 0.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 50.2% +0.2
Fire Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Water Arisanna 0.6% 0
Water Crux Mage 0.6% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 40.6% -9.1
Water Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.2
Wind Exia 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.9% +14.2
Wind Kongming 0.6% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 55.0% +4.8
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.7% +15.5
Wind Overlord 0.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.2% -15.2
Wind Silvie 0.6% 0
Wind Slimes 0.6% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.1% -1.4
Wind Umbra Diana 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 52.6% +4.2
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 56.6% +10.5
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.6% +13.8
Decklists · 23 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 6 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Ardent Cloudstriker, Unbroken Mustang, Dream Fairy. Losers more often ran: Aesan Protector, Zephyr, Cyclical Breeze.

Played more by winners
Ardent Cloudstriker
Winning decks ran 2.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 6, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Unbroken Mustang
Winning decks ran 2.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 2.7 copies on average, losing decks 1.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 4, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 2.
Cleansing Reunion
Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Slimeshield
Winning decks ran 3.7 copies on average, losing decks 3.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 3.
Played more by losers
Aesan Protector
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 5, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 1.
Zephyr
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 4, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 1.
Cyclical Breeze
Losing decks ran 3.8 copies on average, winning decks 3.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 2.
Escape the Wreckage
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 1.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 1.5 copies on average, winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 1.
Crimson Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 3.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Ardent Cloudstriker +1.00 6 0 0
Aesan Protector -0.83 0 5 0
Unbroken Mustang +0.67 4 0 2
Dream Fairy +0.67 4 0 2
Innervate Agility +0.67 4 0 0
Cleansing Reunion +0.50 3 0 0
Slimeshield +0.50 3 0 3
Verdigris Decree +0.50 3 0 3
Zephyr -0.50 1 4 1
Diablerie -0.33 0 2 2
Cyclical Breeze -0.33 1 3 2
Orb of Sealing -0.33 0 2 0
Scout the Land -0.33 0 2 0
Blinding Orb +0.33 2 0 0
Reclaim +0.17 1 0 5
Water Resonance Bauble +0.17 1 0 5
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.17 1 0 5
Tempest Downfall +0.17 1 0 5
Nullifying Lantern +0.17 2 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon +0.17 2 1 3
Bagua of Cardinal Fate +0.17 1 0 5
Wind Resonance Bauble +0.17 1 0 5
Turbo Charge +0.17 1 0 5
Safeguard Amulet +0.17 1 0 5
Tariff Ring -0.17 0 1 5
Escape the Wreckage -0.17 2 3 0
Scatter Essence -0.17 2 3 0
Three Visits -0.17 0 1 5
Crimson Protective Trinket -0.17 1 2 1
Mnemonic Charm -0.17 0 1 0
Smoke Bombs -0.17 0 1 0
Kongming, Ascetic Vice -0.17 0 1 0
Swift Recruit -0.17 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.00 1 1 3
Stifling Trap +0.00 1 1 4
Nullifying Mirror +0.00 2 2 1

JSON: /api/events/12998/archetypes/Wind Razorgale