← The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
Fire ExiaTier 2
at The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
decks
4
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
7-14-3
overall winrate
35.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.1%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
44.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1220
· median 1171
· range 1133–1406
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1169
Q3 1384
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.3% | -6.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.0 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.1 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
