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Wind AlliesTier 1
at The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
decks
16
(9.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
119
50-49-20
overall winrate
50.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.0%
avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1273
· range 1100–1444
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1169
Q3 1384
1685
19% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 34 | 17-13-4 | 55.9% | 55.3% | 53.9% | +1.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 20 | 9-8-3 | 52.5% | 52.1% | 52.6% | +1.0 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.4% | -2.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 12 | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 51.7% | +0.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.7% | 12 | 2-7-3 | 29.2% | 34.4% | 36.3% | -5.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 50.8% | +0.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.4% | +14.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 16 from this event
The 16 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Lurking Assailant, Heavy Swing, Viridian Protective Trinket. Losers more often ran: Reclaim, Windpiercer, Sword of Seeking.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heavy Swing
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Attune with the Winds
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Vigilant Sentry
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Rallied Advance
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Windpiercer
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Cleansing Reunion
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Scavenging Raccoon
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fairy Whispers
Losing decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 93 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 73 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Unrelenting Warden | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Second Wind | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Emerald Pistol | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.17 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Turbulent Bullet | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bertha, Spry Howitzer | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Fei, Spirited Steel | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freydis, Master Tactician | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lena, Dorumegia's Herald | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Winbless Gatekeeper | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wildgrowth Elixir | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dilu, Auspicious Charger | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Liu Bei, Oathkeeper | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Parcenet, Royal Maid | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Marksman Captain | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oath of the Sakura | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |