← The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
Water Tera MageTier 3
at The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
decks
2
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.5%
avg ELO -10.1 per match
expected value
39.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1133
· median 1133
· range 1110–1156
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1169
Q3 1384
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.0% | -5.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.2% | -10.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
