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Fire Crux MageTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 13 | 5-7-1 | 42.3% | 44.1% | 39.9% | -4.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.0% | -1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.2% | -0.4 |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 6 | 0-5-1 | 8.3% | 25.0% | 30.1% | -10.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 66.4% | +15.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.4 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Kongming, Wayward Maven | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |