← The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
Water Crux MageTier 2
at The Card Shop PLT AMB Regionals 2024
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-2-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.6%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
50.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1156
· median 1156
· range 1156–1156
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
941
Q1 1169
Q3 1384
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 13.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.4% | +9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 9.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
