Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Scry Games AMB Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 67.9% | +13.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.6% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -4.7 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.4% | -2.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.6% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 44.3% | -2.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Exia | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.8% | -14.5 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.0% | -15.3 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Water Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -6.2 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -4.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Mystic Purifier, Honorable Vanguard, Thunderclap.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 44 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Thunderclap | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Set Ablaze | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |