Fire ExiaTier 3
at Scry Games AMB Regionals
decks
2
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
5-5-3
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
47.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1370
· median 1370
· range 1280–1460
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1162
Q3 1408
1685
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.3% | -3.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -15.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
