Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Scry Games AMB Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.8% | +1.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.4% | 10 | 6-2-2 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 65.2% | +6.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.6% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -0.7 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 8 | 3-2-3 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 48.6% | -0.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 9.6% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 63.8% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 49.0% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Wind Jin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Kongming | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Temptation's Facade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nico, Rapture's Embrace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |