Water Penguin MillTier 1
at Scry Games AMB Regionals
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 10.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.4% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.6% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 51.5% | +0.8 |
| Slimes | 9.6% | 10 | 8-0-2 | 90.0% | 78.6% | 68.6% | +8.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 55.7% | +2.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.0% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 36.2% | -8.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.1% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.1% | +9.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.2% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.4% | -2.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 57.8% | +5.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.2% | -6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.7% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 63.9% | +8.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Kongming | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Silvie | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Water Penguin Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Frostbind, Cerulean Decree. Losers more often ran: Primordial Ritual.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dewdrop Hares | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Awakened Deacon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shroud in Mist | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |