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Fire AggroTier 2
at Illusive TCG Online Regionals
decks
5
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
9-13-2
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.2%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
45.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1397
· median 1419
· range 1094–1563
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1284
Q3 1447
1702
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -1.3 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.8% | -5.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 44.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -1.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Water Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Water Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
