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Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Illusive TCG Online Regionals
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 46.2% | -2.4 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.4% | +5.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.5% | -4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Attack | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Thunderclap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shard of Empowerment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Quill | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harmonious Mantra | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |