← Illusive TCG Online Regionals
Water AlliesTier 2
at Illusive TCG Online Regionals
decks
3
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
7-8-3
overall winrate
47.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.2%
avg ELO -1.1 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1356
· median 1353
· range 1297–1419
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
972
Q1 1284
Q3 1447
1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 43.6% | -3.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -3.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.2 |
| Water Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
