← Illusive TCG Online Regionals

Wind AlliesTier 2

at Illusive TCG Online Regionals

decks
9 (10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
48 16-17-15
overall winrate
49.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7% avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
48.3% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1360 · median 1362 · range 1272–1444 (9 pilots with an ELO rating)
972 Q1 1284 Q3 1447 1702
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 13.3% 9 5-2-2 66.7% 61.5% 52.0% +0.9
Water Penguin Mill 12.2% 6 0-4-2 16.7% 30.0% 42.9% -3.8
Water Ravishing Mill 10.0% 9 4-2-3 61.1% 57.7% 52.9% +1.3
Wind Astra Cleric 8.9% 5 0-2-3 30.0% 38.9% 45.2% -2.8
Wind Razorgale 7.8% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 46.2% -2.4
Fire Slimes 6.7% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 50.8% +0.6
Wind Shadowstrike 6.7% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.6% +1.2
Fire Aggro 5.6% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.8% +1.8
Fire Crux Mage 3.3% 0
Water Allies 3.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.4% +3.9
Water Diana 2.2% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.2
Water Tera Kongming 2.2% 0
Wind Slimes 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.1% +5.0
Fire Exia 1.1% 0
Water Kongming 1.1% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.1% 0
Water Silvie 1.1% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.4% +3.9
Wind Crux Mage 1.1% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.6% +5.7
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Veiling Breeze, Deflecting Edge, Verdigris Decree. Losers more often ran: Innervate Agility.

Played more by winners
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Deflecting Edge
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Verdigris Decree
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 3.3 copies on average, losing decks 2.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 1.0 copy on average, winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 58 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Veiling Breeze +1.00 3 0 0
Deflecting Edge +1.00 3 0 0
Dilu, Auspicious Charger -0.67 0 2 0
Reclaim +0.67 2 0 0
Aesan Protector +0.67 2 0 1
Perse, Relentless Raptor -0.67 0 2 0
Shimmercloak Assassin +0.67 2 0 1
Bertha, Spry Howitzer -0.67 0 2 0
Lurking Assailant +0.67 2 0 1
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa +0.67 2 0 1
Liu Bei, Oathkeeper -0.67 0 2 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.67 0 2 0
Cry for Help -0.67 0 2 0
Lena, Dorumegia's Herald -0.67 0 2 0
Mortal Ambition -0.67 0 2 0
Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar -0.67 0 2 0
Song of Nurturing +0.67 2 0 0
Parcenet, Royal Maid -0.67 0 2 0
Eternal Magistrate +0.67 2 0 1
Backstep -0.67 0 2 0
Unrelenting Warden +0.67 2 0 0
Dream Fairy +0.67 2 0 1
Skirting Step -0.67 0 2 0
Heavy Swing +0.33 1 0 1
Diablerie +0.33 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.33 0 1 2
Water Resonance Bauble +0.33 1 0 2
Fire Resonance Bauble -0.33 0 1 1
Stifling Trap +0.33 1 0 2
Vigilant Sentry +0.33 1 0 1
Woodland Squirrels +0.33 1 0 1
Tristan, Underhanded -0.33 0 1 0
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary +0.33 1 0 1
Life Essence Amulet -0.33 0 1 0
Nullifying Lantern -0.33 0 1 2
Imperial Recruit +0.33 1 0 1
Ornamental Greatsword +0.33 1 0 2
Bulwark Sword +0.33 1 0 1
Verdigris Decree +0.33 2 1 0
Marksman Captain -0.33 0 1 0
Safeguard Amulet -0.33 0 1 1
Fairy Whispers -0.33 0 1 1
Oath of the Sakura -0.33 0 1 1
Nullifying Mirror +0.33 1 0 2
Zephyr +0.33 2 1 0
Winbless Rangefinder -0.33 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -0.33 1 2 0
Tithe Proclamation -0.33 0 1 0
Attune with the Winds -0.33 0 1 0
Mystic Purifier -0.33 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon -0.33 0 1 0
Poisoned Coating Oil +0.33 1 0 1
Cleansing Reunion -0.33 0 1 0
Rose, Eternal Paragon -0.33 0 1 0
Evasive Maneuvers -0.33 0 1 0
Charged Mannequin +0.33 1 0 0
Rallied Advance +0.33 1 0 0
Manufacture Cell +0.33 1 0 0
Andronika, Eternal Herald +0.33 1 0 0
Second Wind +0.33 1 0 0
Crimson Protective Trinket +0.33 1 0 0
Windrider Vanguard +0.00 1 1 0
Favorable Winds +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/14764/archetypes/Wind Allies