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Water Penguin MillTier 1
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 10.0% | 9 | 1-2-6 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 47.4% | -1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 6 | 4-0-2 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 57.1% | +3.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.9% | 7 | 2-1-4 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.1% | +1.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.8% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 53.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.0% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.2% | +5.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 56.4% | +3.7 |
| Water Diana | 2.2% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Water Silvie | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cerulean Decree, Fractal of Intrusion, Rimesoul Bishop. Losers more often ran: Revitalizing Cleanse.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tidal Lock | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Desperate Dive | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conjure Downpour | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |