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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 13.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 54.1% | +2.6 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.2% | 9 | 2-1-6 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 52.6% | +1.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 9 | 2-4-3 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 47.1% | -1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 55.3% | +3.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 7.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 57.2% | +4.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -3.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.1% | +3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 55.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.3% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 47.3% | -2.0 |
| Water Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Water Kongming | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Water Silvie | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +3.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Tidal Lock, Freezing Steel. Losers more often ran: Primordial Ritual.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 11 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidal Lock | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |