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Wind RazorgaleTier 1

at Illusive TCG Online Regionals

decks
7 (7.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
43 20-14-9
overall winrate
57.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.9% avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
50.6% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1399 · median 1420 · range 1195–1516 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
972 Q1 1284 Q3 1447 1702
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 14% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Slimes 13.3% 7 3-2-2 57.1% 54.5% 49.3% -0.4
Water Penguin Mill 12.2% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 46.8% -2.0
Water Ravishing Mill 10.0% 4 0-3-1 12.5% 31.2% 42.8% -4.6
Wind Allies 10.0% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 53.8% +2.4
Wind Astra Cleric 8.9% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.1% +0.8
Fire Slimes 6.7% 6 5-1-0 83.3% 70.0% 58.3% +4.5
Wind Shadowstrike 6.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.1% -7.9
Fire Aggro 5.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 51.6% +1.2
Fire Crux Mage 3.3% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 44.6% -5.2
Water Allies 3.3% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.8
Water Diana 2.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 53.8% +3.7
Water Tera Kongming 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.8% -1.9
Wind Slimes 2.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.2% +3.5
Fire Exia 1.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.4% -8.9
Water Kongming 1.1% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 1.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 55.5% +8.8
Water Silvie 1.1% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 1.1% 0
Wind Crux Mage 1.1% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.8% +12.3
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 29 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 29 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Scatter Essence +1.00 2 0 0
Cleansing Reunion -0.50 0 1 1
Resolute Stand +0.50 1 0 0
Mnemonic Charm +0.50 1 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.50 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket -0.50 0 1 1
Cyclical Breeze +0.50 1 0 1
Verdigris Decree -0.50 0 1 1
Baby Green Slime -0.50 0 1 1
Zephyr +0.50 1 0 1
Three Visits +0.50 1 0 1
Indolent Leisure +0.50 1 0 0
Innervate Agility -0.50 0 1 1
Aesan Protector -0.50 0 1 0
Slimeshield -0.50 0 1 0
Baby Gray Slime -0.50 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage -0.50 0 1 0
Reclaim +0.00 1 1 0
Unbroken Mustang +0.00 1 1 0
Scout the Land +0.00 1 1 0
Forest Cake +0.00 1 1 0
Stifling Trap +0.00 1 1 0
Favorable Winds +0.00 1 1 0
Turbo Charge +0.00 1 1 0
Ardent Cloudstriker +0.00 1 1 0
Orb of Regret +0.00 1 1 0
Dematerialize +0.00 1 1 0
Dream Fairy +0.00 1 1 0
Skirting Step +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/14764/archetypes/Wind Razorgale